Worst-Case Scenarios
by: Cass R. Sunstein
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Listen to a short interview with Cass Sunstein
Host: Chris Gondek | Producer: Heron & Crane
Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction?
Cass Sunstein explores these and other worst-case scenarios and how we might best prevent them in this vivid, illuminating, and highly original analysis. Singling out the problems of terrorism and climate change, Sunstein explores our susceptibility to two opposite and unhelpful reactions: panic and utter neglect. He shows how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster--emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction. Finally, he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost-benefit analysis, especially when current generations are imposing risks on future generations.
Throughout, Sunstein uses climate change as a defining case, because it dramatically illustrates the underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and worst-case scenarios faced in our ordinary lives. Sunstein concludes that if we can avoid the twin dangers ofover-reaction and apathy, we will be able to ameliorate if not avoid future catastrophes, retaining our sanity as well as scarce resources that can be devoted to more constructive ends.
(20080202)
Listen to a short interview with Cass Sunstein
Host: Chris Gondek | Producer: Heron & Crane
Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction?
Cass Sunstein explores these and other worst-case scenarios and how we might best prevent them in this vivid, illuminating, and highly original analysis. Singling out the problems of terrorism and climate change, Sunstein explores our susceptibility to two opposite and unhelpful reactions: panic and utter neglect. He shows how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster--emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction. Finally, he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost-benefit analysis, especially when current generations are imposing risks on future generations.
Throughout, Sunstein uses climate change as a defining case, because it dramatically illustrates the underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and worst-case scenarios faced in our ordinary lives. Sunstein concludes that if we can avoid the twin dangers ofover-reaction and apathy, we will be able to ameliorate if not avoid future catastrophes, retaining our sanity as well as scarce resources that can be devoted to more constructive ends.
(20080202)
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Customer Reviews
Average Rating:
Rating: 
- Superb discussion of cost benefit analysis applied to extreme situations
Cass Sunstein has written a superb analysis of how cost benefit analysis can usefully be applied to extreme situations - worst case scenarios.He takes up two - mostly climate change, but then compares it to counterterrorism.My comments below focus on the application of cost benefit analysis in responses to terrorism; I admire Sunstein's analysis, but think it has limitations in its application to terrorism.
Regnant approaches to terrorism are driven not just by narrow cost benefit ... Read More
Rating: 
- Good read, good insights, but makes leaps of faith that fall short
I recommend reading this book.Dr. Sunstein considers many modes of thought and the book should get you thinking.
Throughout the book Dr. Sunstein uses two main narratives to examine how people react to uncertainty, Terrorism and Global Warming.He provides a very PC perspective, probably to better reach a broad audience and get them thinking about how we deal with what we don't know.The book is an exercise to get the lay person thinking about uncertainty rather than an objective analysis ... Read More
- Superb discussion of cost benefit analysis applied to extreme situationsCass Sunstein has written a superb analysis of how cost benefit analysis can usefully be applied to extreme situations - worst case scenarios.He takes up two - mostly climate change, but then compares it to counterterrorism.My comments below focus on the application of cost benefit analysis in responses to terrorism; I admire Sunstein's analysis, but think it has limitations in its application to terrorism.
Regnant approaches to terrorism are driven not just by narrow cost benefit ... Read More
- Good read, good insights, but makes leaps of faith that fall shortI recommend reading this book.Dr. Sunstein considers many modes of thought and the book should get you thinking.
Throughout the book Dr. Sunstein uses two main narratives to examine how people react to uncertainty, Terrorism and Global Warming.He provides a very PC perspective, probably to better reach a broad audience and get them thinking about how we deal with what we don't know.The book is an exercise to get the lay person thinking about uncertainty rather than an objective analysis ... Read More
