The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It
by: Daniel A. Arnold
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Product Description:
The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.
January 2009 Update:
1. First, read the 2007 Update below.
2. 2008 was the victim of a self inflicted sub-prime financial crisis. This has nothing to do with the demographics based massive depression that is yet to come, as described in the book. The sub-prime consequences are however very similar though mild so far compared to what is coming our way. The book clearly spelled out that along the way unpredictable short-term (1 to 3 years) disruptive events could happen. The sub-prime crisis is just that. It should be regarded as the warmer upper or hors d'oeuvre for the big one that is now rapidly closing in on us all.
3. The great unknown at this point is whether the sub-prime based crisis will drag on beyond 2009 and then blend into the demographics based massive decline which, per the book, could begin as early as 2009-10. Being short-term by definition, this period is totally unpredictable.
4. There is the strong possibility that we will see an interim recovery manifested as a last hurrah rally in 2009 of perhaps 30% on the Dow after a new low of around 7,000. However, this is very speculative. The only historical certainty is that in the long-term the Dow always returns to the demographic. This lends some credence to such a rally as the immutable demographic, as you can see from the chart, remains in a very strong upswing as it moves toward its 2012 peak before crashing. Also waiting in the wings ready to surge back into the markets are trillions of dollars earning very little in money market funds.
October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.
The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.
January 2009 Update:
1. First, read the 2007 Update below.
2. 2008 was the victim of a self inflicted sub-prime financial crisis. This has nothing to do with the demographics based massive depression that is yet to come, as described in the book. The sub-prime consequences are however very similar though mild so far compared to what is coming our way. The book clearly spelled out that along the way unpredictable short-term (1 to 3 years) disruptive events could happen. The sub-prime crisis is just that. It should be regarded as the warmer upper or hors d'oeuvre for the big one that is now rapidly closing in on us all.
3. The great unknown at this point is whether the sub-prime based crisis will drag on beyond 2009 and then blend into the demographics based massive decline which, per the book, could begin as early as 2009-10. Being short-term by definition, this period is totally unpredictable.
4. There is the strong possibility that we will see an interim recovery manifested as a last hurrah rally in 2009 of perhaps 30% on the Dow after a new low of around 7,000. However, this is very speculative. The only historical certainty is that in the long-term the Dow always returns to the demographic. This lends some credence to such a rally as the immutable demographic, as you can see from the chart, remains in a very strong upswing as it moves toward its 2012 peak before crashing. Also waiting in the wings ready to surge back into the markets are trillions of dollars earning very little in money market funds.
October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.
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Customer Reviews
Average Rating:
Rating: 
- The future revealed
A very good oversight of how things have happened considering this was written in 2002. The prediction has been correct so far, therefore by deduction, up to 2020 is not going to be a good prospect. It will be a long struggle. The book content and current situation does prompt a lot uncomfortable questions about motives in the banking an government sector controls up to now and for the future.
Rating: - Excellent analysis
Great breakdown to the financial crisis and the mess in which we are today, just wish I read it earlier....
Rating: 
- Pretty close for a 2002 prediction
This book is a small 55 page (large type) book that can be read in about thirty minutes.The author uses lots of graphs and census data to support his theory that the US economy simply follows the demographics of the 45 -54 year old US population.Although the concept sounds strange at first, he does a good job of supporting his claims with data.
The most interesting thing about the book is that it was written in 2002 and called for a market peak around the 2012 period and then a huge ... Read More
Rating: 
- Right for the Wrong Reasons
This book attempts to use demographics to explain the boom and busts of the past.It uses lots of facts in layman's terms to support its demographic argument.While a lot of the book is very thought provoking, it fails to take into account the number one reason for deep recessions and depressions - and that is easy credit based on funny money (e.g.: Federal Reserve Notes - yes the stuff we use today).The bank note credit squeeze of 1837, the Long Depression of the 1890's, and the Great Depression ... Read More
Rating: - The Forgotten Man
The book is excellant and provides detailed perspective on how the 1929 depression was extended by the misguided policies of Hoover and FDR.As someone with the middle name of Delano, it sure dispells the myth that FDR is a great American hero.
- The future revealedA very good oversight of how things have happened considering this was written in 2002. The prediction has been correct so far, therefore by deduction, up to 2020 is not going to be a good prospect. It will be a long struggle. The book content and current situation does prompt a lot uncomfortable questions about motives in the banking an government sector controls up to now and for the future.
- Excellent analysisGreat breakdown to the financial crisis and the mess in which we are today, just wish I read it earlier....
- Pretty close for a 2002 predictionThis book is a small 55 page (large type) book that can be read in about thirty minutes.The author uses lots of graphs and census data to support his theory that the US economy simply follows the demographics of the 45 -54 year old US population.Although the concept sounds strange at first, he does a good job of supporting his claims with data.
The most interesting thing about the book is that it was written in 2002 and called for a market peak around the 2012 period and then a huge ... Read More
- Right for the Wrong ReasonsThis book attempts to use demographics to explain the boom and busts of the past.It uses lots of facts in layman's terms to support its demographic argument.While a lot of the book is very thought provoking, it fails to take into account the number one reason for deep recessions and depressions - and that is easy credit based on funny money (e.g.: Federal Reserve Notes - yes the stuff we use today).The bank note credit squeeze of 1837, the Long Depression of the 1890's, and the Great Depression ... Read More
- The Forgotten ManThe book is excellant and provides detailed perspective on how the 1929 depression was extended by the misguided policies of Hoover and FDR.As someone with the middle name of Delano, it sure dispells the myth that FDR is a great American hero.
